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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.