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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."